The United States Men’s Olympic Team finds themselves in a must-win situation on Saturday afternoon, as they need a win against New Zealand – sans drones – in order to stay alive in their hopes to reach the knockout round.
While a draw would not mathematically eliminate Marko Mitrović’s men from contention to qualify for the quarterfinal, it would essentially leave them heavily dependent upon other results, with the three-goal loss to France in the first game giving them a formidable goal-differential deficit to overcome.
Even a narrow victory over the “OlyWhites” might not be enough should their opponents manage an upset over France in the final game, however it would be an important first step to overcome the disappointment of the opening loss.
To their credit, Mitrović’s men generally played better, at least over the first hour, than the lopsided 3-0 scoreline would have indicated. On the balance they roughly matched Thierry Henry’s squad on possession, shots and on-target attempts, and had several smash off the woodwork.
However, the inability to actually finish their chances, as well as ill-timed, loose play in the defense and between the nets ultimately allowed the French to cruise to a not-so-surprising victory.
Against New Zealand, they will be facing a team that narrowly beat Guinea in their tournament opener, and were perhaps lucky to do so as their backs were pressed against the wall for much of the game.
While far from pushovers, the New Zealanders still have considerably less first-team experience in top leagues compared to the Americans. Ignoring their three overage players, who bring experience on the level of MLS, Scandinavian leagues and lower-tier German divisions, the vast majority of first-team,l professional minutes by the squad have been for A-league team Wellington Phoenix.
The team’s captain, midfielder Matthew Garbett, was on the books at Serie A club FC Torino for a pair of seasons, however has more recently settled into Dutch club NAC Breda, who recently gained promotion back to the Eredivisie. Garbett scored the team’s opening goal against Guinea, moments after failing to convert a penalty.
Their main standout of the first game was keeper Alex Paulsen, who made an impressive total of seven saves to keep the team on-track for the three points. The 22 year-old keeper recently signed with English Premier League team Bournemouth after a breakout season in Wellington.
The ultimate winner in the game was scored by England-based Ben Waine who, as many of the team’s players, made a name in Wellington before earning a transfer to English Championship club Plymouth Argyle. The 23 year-old also has 16 caps for New Zealand’s senior team, making him one of the more dangerous players for the Americans.
For the Americans, the question will be whether Mitrović makes any wholesale changes to his squad, or trusts a lineup that was effective in all but the final product on Wednesday.
Due to Patrick Schulte’s issues in the back, it would be fair to expect Gabriel Slonina to make his Olympic debut at keeper. Veteran central defenders Walker Zimmerman and Miles Robinson are likely to keep their spots in the middle, even with the relative ease with which France scored over the last half-hour.
A shift in the attacking spots is likely in order; Duncan McGuire was largely ineffective during his 80-plus minutes, so Westerlo’s Griffin Yow could be due a run-out. Taylor Booth could slide into a starting role for Keven Parades; the Wolfsburg man had a strong 76-minute outing on Wednesday however is carrying a yellow and could be used sparingly.
The midfield core of Gianluca Busio and Tanner Tessmann could also be altered; neither particularly stood out as particularly strong or weak in the dual-central role, however with Mitrović likely having a bit more freedom to run the US-Soccer-standard 4-3-3 lineup, Djordje Mihailovic or Benjamin Cremaschi could lead to a slight tactical shift.
With France expected to easily beat Guinea, a US victory, which is strongly favored in betting circles, would essentially give the Americans the leg-up on reaching the quarterfinal thanks to a much easier final game than their counterparts. A draw could still mathematically do the trick, however would require France to beat the OlyWhites in the final game, coupled with a win by the Americans over Guinea, with the margins enough to swing the four-goal difference in goal differential.
The game kicks off at the Orange Vélodrome in Marseille at 7pm local time, 1pm Eastern US time.
