After a performance that certainly led to countless American fans calling their cardiologist, the United States Men’s National Team will try to defeat Mexico in the CONCACAF Nations League final on Sunday, for a third straight title in the competition.
The final 3-1 scoreline in Thursday’s semifinal between Gregg Berhalter’s men and heavy underdogs Jamaica masked a frustrating showing over the course of the first 90-plus minutes, that saw the US team only saved by an unlucky own-goal on what was likely the last attack of the game.
Jamaica took advantage of a defensive lapse to take a lead in the early seconds, defended for their lives, and almost pulled off what would have been a tenure-defining upset for Berhalter.
The late gift opened the door for a much less surprising overtime period, where the combination of Gio Reyna and Haji Wright struck twice to secure what had earlier looked like an improbable advancement to the final.
Sunday’s opponent, Mexico, will hardly be so generous, and should be considered current favorites in the game after easily defeating Panama by a 3-0 score in Thursday’s later semifinal match, even if most betting oddsmakers say otherwise.
While in all aspects except the scoreline, the Americans dominated the more than 95 minutes between Jamaica’s goal and the gifted equalizer, holding 78% of possession, taking 25 shots compared to the Raggae Boyz’ six, and putting seven of those on-target, the final product was lacking until the substitutes saved the day.
This raises the question of whether Berhalter will reward the likes of Reyna and Wright with starting roles on Sunday, or entirely stick with his midfield trio and front three that failed to get the job done.
If any lingering concerns about Reyna’s readiness can be put aside, inserting the Nottingham Forest loanee in a wide midfield role in place of either Malik Tillman or Yunus Musah, neither of whom was exactly bad, but could have been better, could be reasonable.
Alternatively a exchanging the currently-hot Wright for center forward Folarin Balogun, who was far from dangerous, is a more obvious choice.
One change which is almost certain will be the insertion of Sergiño Dest into the starting lineup, after the versatile outside back missed the semifinal due to a suspension. The most straightforward and likely deployment would be at left back, in place of Joe Scally and opposite Antonee Robinson.
Assuming Berhalter sticks with the four-defender set in front of Matt Turner, the pair of Chris Richards and Miles Robinson both showed enough for the majority of Thursday’s game to maintain their starting spots over the less mobile Tim Ream and less internationally experienced Mark McKenzie.
In the midfield, Weston McKennie’s edge in international experience over Johnny Cardoso, especially against Mexico, and the limitation of Tyler Adams‘ playing time will once again see the Texan as the primary enforcer in the middle. If Berhalter makes the logical choice of starting Reyna, then Musah’s experience will likely win out over Tillman, who has yet to register a goal or assist in his nine games in the Red, White and Blue.
This likely sets up a front-three of Christian Pulisic, Tim Weah and either of the two aforementioned center options, with Ricardo Pepi waiting in the wings for late defensive firepower.
Regardless of the XI that Berhalter puts out in AT&T Stadium near Dallas, they will have their hands full with a Mexico team that put three past Panama in a 27-minute span on either side of the halftime break, and were ruthless with their limited chances, despite ceding most of the possession to their opponents.
Their star of the game was keeper Guillermo Ochoa, who saved all five of Panama’s shots on-target, and could give real problems to the American attack should the players be as wasteful as three days before.
Head coach Jaime Lozano did call up a mostly domestic-based squad, with 13 of the 23 players plying their trade in Liga MX. Still, they have enough quality to go toe-to-toe with Berhalter’s men, particularly with team star Edson Álvarez pulling the strings in the middle.
Of note, forward Julián Quiñones, who scored the 2-0 for Mexico on Thursday, is getting his introduction to the USA-Mexico rivalry after switching his allegiance from Colombia to El Tri in late-2023. The Club América forward will likely once again lineup alongside his club teammate Henry Martin, forming the most dangerous threat to Turner and the American back line.
Mexican-American defender Julián Araujo will probably make his first competitive appearance for El Tri against his country of birth, after being left on the bench in the Nations League semifinal between the teams last summer, and starting in a meaningless friendly several months before.
One contant factor to any games between the USA and Mexico in official competitions, particularly knockout games, is that any recent history can typically be thrown out and a close game is, in most cases, a nearly certain expectation.
Should Berhalter make smart adjustments to solve the issues of Thursday night, then his team can look positively on two real advantages:
From top to bottom, and on current form, they do currently have the edge on player quality, and the level of competition most of the key contributors face in their club careers.
Second, and perhaps more importantly, Mexico has not beaten the US in an official competition, ignoring friendlies, since the Gold Cup in summer 2019. The Americans should enter the game with a mental edge over their opponents, and this has often been the deciding factor when push comes to shove.
The game will kick off at 8:15pm local time in Dallas, 9:15pm Eastern US time in the AT&T stadium in Arlington, Texas.
